Welfare cuts linked to degree choices and university completion
Categories: Research using linked data, Research findings, Data Insights, ADR UK Research Fellows, ADR England, Office for National Statistics, Children, young people & education, Social mobility & inclusion, Employment & the economy
23 September 2026
New research using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) – England dataset suggests that welfare cuts introduced through the 2012 Welfare Reform Act affected students’ higher education choices and outcomes.
A new Data Insight, by Dr Farshad Ravasan and Dr Taheya Tarannum, finds that students living in areas experiencing larger welfare cuts became more likely to undermatch to their degrees – choosing degrees where the typical student had lower prior academic attainment than their own.
The reform increased the likelihood of undermatching by 0.9 percentage points, equivalent to a 5.4% increase relative to the average undermatching rate during the period studied.
The researchers also found that students in areas more affected by welfare cuts were less likely to complete university. This effect was particularly pronounced among students from more deprived backgrounds.
The findings come against a backdrop of improving educational outcomes earlier in the education system. Between 2007 and 2013, the proportion of students completing Key Stage 4 with at least five GCSEs including English and Maths increased by 31%, while Key Stage 5 enrolment increased by 49%. However, university enrolment increased by only 5%, and the university graduation rate declined slightly in the later years.
The research also found that socioeconomic gaps narrowed at Key Stage 4 and Key Stage 5, but the gap in university graduation rates widened.
The researchers suggest that welfare cuts may have created financial pressures that affected students’ degree choices and ability to complete their studies. They will next investigate whether these effects translate into longer-term earnings penalties associated with degree mismatch and non-completion, as well as whether students were more likely to take part-time work in response to the economic shock.
